Socioeconomic deprivation and dementia risk in New Zealand: A modelling study

Aust N Z J Psychiatry. 2026 Aug 2:48674261470616. doi: 10.1177/00048674261470616. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: We aimed to estimate the population attributable fraction for dementia associated with neighbourhood deprivation and the potential impact of reducing deprivation on dementia prevalence over time.

METHODS: We calculated the population attributable fraction across Aotearoa New Zealand for 13 risks (less education, hypertension, obesity, smoking, depression, physical inactivity, social isolation, diabetes, excessive alcohol, air pollution, hearing loss, vision loss, high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol) stratified by deprivation and ethnicity. We modelled the impact of reducing deprivation on dementia prevalence over 30 years.

RESULTS: Population attributable fraction increased with deprivation, from 36.0% in the least deprived to 45.8% in the most deprived quintile. Modelled reductions in deprivation were predicted to produce greater dementia prevalence reductions at all time points for Māori and Pacific peoples compared to Europeans.

DISCUSSION: Dementia prevention potential increases as deprivation increases. The impact of reducing deprivation increases over 30 years. Projected benefits are disproportionately greater in populations in areas of higher deprivation.

PMID:42543877 | DOI:10.1177/00048674261470616